Hypotheses

Canonical hypothesis register (74)

The registry below is the single source of truth shared by this site, the metrics engine and the API. Some pages cover the same thesis under more than one historical URL.

• H10001 — BTC is priced in USDT, not USD, and only Tether knows what USDT is worth - so only Tether can price BTC somewh
• H10002 — Tether does not act rationally in the short term; it can take losses for a bigger unknown goal.
• H10003 — Tether lies and falsifies information, but rationally - we just do not know their logic.
• H10004 — Big public announcements that should raise the price tend to lower it; someone knows and controls something ot
• H10005 — USDT price is controlled/manipulated both above and below 1.00; the ~1 is not a free market rate.
• H10006 — BTC price is best predicted by monitoring what Tether the company does.
• H10007 — It is all a Ponzi scheme manipulated by Tether and allies; fundamental and technical analysis are therefore us
• H10008 — All chains together form a closed network of nodes and links with massive unexplainable black holes/gaps.
• H10009 — Addresses have fundamentally different motives and behaviors (trader, HODL, institutional, Tether-allied, laun
• H10010 — Big deals do not affect prices because they are done off-chain or outside exchange norm accounts.
• H10011 — Everything starts with someone printing, yet price does not drop proportionately - printing continues as long
• H10012 — Information is negative-time: parties like Tether and exchanges know in advance, are unregulated, and can stop
• H10013 — House of cards: when USDT breaks, nobody will sell BTC for USDT; exchanges stop redemptions and IOUs are not h
• H10014 — Everyone knows BTC is not worth [x] USD and USDT not 1 USD, but nobody cares because USDT is convenient.
• H10015 — Exchanges make their money from huge-leverage margin calls and betting against their own customers.
• H10016 — In a normal market everyone would short USDT, but counterparty risk makes the trade untrustable in crypto.
• H10017 — Crypto Black Swans look completely different from traditional finance; 10% daily moves are normal.
• H10018 — Over 90% of stablecoin volume is professional flow: prop traders, market makers, rebalancing, cross-exchange a
• H10019 — Back-tested models do not work forward; models need continuous adjustment and real-time alerts, which public L
• H10020 — The lower-counterparty-risk way to short BTC is via MSTR stock/options and Bitcoin/mining ETFs; hedge funds do
• H10021 — Traders copy each other with the same useless historical-technical strategies and miss the fundamental drivers
• H10022 — Staking and yield farming are Ponzi: yield cannot come from a non-yielding asset paid in USDT.
• H10023 — BTC volatility is so high that estimating implied volatility more accurately is valuable.
• H10024 — There is a structural reason traders accumulate USDT/USDC instead of withdrawing USD, and that is a massive ri
• H10025 — USDT is asymmetric: never much above $1, but can crash to zero if the peg breaks.
• H10026 — BTC is bought with USDT, not USD - how buyers originally obtained that USDT matters.
• H10027 — Value is created via off-chain IOUs and hidden orders; discrepancies between visible and actual arrangements p
• H10028 — Binance, Aster, Binance Futures, Bitmex, etc. are not transparent.
• H10029 — Crypto trades 24/7 while traditional systems use daily open/close; certain times of day are systematically hig
• H10030 — Massive arbitrage discrepancies exist between crypto, stocks and ETFs, and between spot and derivatives.
• H10031 — Volatility changes significantly and rapidly.
• H10032 — Margin calls are an essential money-machine for exchanges.
• H10033 — Stablecoins have unknown (perhaps zero) intrinsic value and can become fully illiquid via stopped redemptions.
• H10034 — All inputs unreliable - meaningless given fat tails.
• H10035 — Trading data is fake.
• H10036 — Markets undergo regime changes and have single points of failure.
• H10037 — Crypto violates core assumptions; parameters can change by orders of magnitude within hours.
• H10038 — Extreme kurtosis, fat tails and flash crashes.
• H10039 — Crypto-assets have no intrinsic value and 1% of BTC addresses hold 90% of supply.
• H10040 — Every on-chain crypto trade by each trader is visible to everyone.
• H10041 — Markets are unregulated; traders/exchanges/market makers do what would be illegal in regulated markets.
• H10042 — Unable to determine if options are cheap or expensive - mispricing.
• H10043 — BTC has a "$1.7 trillion market cap." This number is completely meaningless. If holders tried to sell even 1%
• H10044 — Bitcoin is supposed to be decentralized. But 3 mining pools control over 50% of hash rate. They could theoreti
• H10045 — "Not your keys, not your coins" - but key management is a nightmare. Hardware wallets fail. Seed phrases get l
• H10046 — DeFi TVL reached "$200 billion" at peak. But TVL is massively double-counted. Deposit ETH, get aETH, deposit a
• H10047 — When influencers shill tokens, they're not sharing alpha - they're being paid to dump on you. Project teams pa
• H10048 — Projects try to "comply with regulations." But crypto regulation is random, contradictory, and constantly chan
• H10049 — "Audited by [Big Name Firm]" is supposed to mean safety. But audited protocols get hacked constantly. Audits c
• H10050 — You can see the future in crypto: token unlock schedules. When VC tokens unlock, they sell. When team tokens v
• H10051 — Is crypto correlated to stocks? Yes and no. During normal times, correlation wanders. But during crashes, ever
• H10052 — NFT floor price: $50,000. Actual bids: 3, totaling $2,000. NFT prices are fiction maintained by wash trading a
• H10053 — Layer 2 solutions promise scaling. But bridges are the most hacked infrastructure in crypto. Ronin: $600M. Wor
• H10054 — Funding rate at 0.1% per 8 hours (109% annualized)? Reversal is coming. Extreme funding rates are one of the f
• H10055 — Stimulus money inflated crypto - when the printer stops, prices crash
• H10056 — Only a handful of exchanges control derivatives - concentrated power means coordinated manipulation
• H10057 — Elon Musk, Trump, and regulators move markets with tweets - narrative beats fundamentals
• H10058 — Money launderers don't care about price - speed and secrecy beat profit
• H10059 — Criminal wallets are public - we can predict their behavior and market impact
• H10060 — Halving creates predictable narrative cycles you can trade
• H10061 — Hard forks create chaos and "free money" illusions - fork tokens usually crash to zero
• H10062 — Open interest and liquidation levels reveal where price wants to go
• H10063 — Mining concentrates where electricity is cheap or free - often stolen, subsidized, or politically unstable
• H10064 — Social media moves crypto more than insider knowledge - public discussion beats private whispers
• H10065 — Illegal traders are a massive part of crypto volume - you're trading alongside criminals
• H10066 — A handful of unethical actors set prices through hidden deals and probable fraud
• H10067 — Crypto liquidity is fundamentally different - what you see is not what you can execute
• H10068 — Human cognitive biases are amplified in crypto markets
• H10069 — Professional investors make predictable mistakes in crypto
• H10070 — Scheduled fixings act as gravity wells. BTC price behavior around clock-scheduled settlement and reference eve
• H10071 — Settlement windows invert the economics of manipulation. When billions in derivative payoffs reference a narro
• H10072 — Binary contracts create the sharpest manipulation incentive per dollar. Polymarket-style up/down contracts set
• H10073 — Macro prints move BTC through the liquidity vacuum, not just the news. Around FOMC and CPI, market makers pre-
• H10074 — The fixing complex is exploitable in proportion to capital, visibility and infrastructure control - all obtain