H10072: Binary contracts create the sharpest manipulation incentive per dollar. Polymarket-style up/down contracts…

Binary contracts create the sharpest manipulation incentive per dollar. Polymarket-style up/down contracts settle all-or-nothing on a specific oracle print at a specific minute: near resolution, a large binary holder gains a discontinuous payoff from nudging the underlying reference by a fraction of a percent - the highest payoff-per-basis-point structure in the market. Publicly visible odds probably also feed BACK into spot behavior (traders treat odds as signal), so the prediction market and the underlying can chase each other around resolution times.