Madjik. Magic data for financial traders.

TRADING IS A ZERO-SUM GAME. When your algorithm loses, someone else's algorithm wins.

Every trading model that looks great in backtests fails in live trading. Past performance doesn't predict future results - especially in crypto where market structure changes constantly.
Hypotheses

Every trading model that looks great in backtests fails in live trading. Past performance doesn't predict future results - especially in crypto where market structure changes constantly.

Hypothesis HY10019 Every trading model that looks great in backtests fails in live trading. Past performance doesn't predict future results - especially in crypto where market structure changes constantly. Trading hypothesis What traders get wrong False assumption: "My model has great backtested returns." Truth: Back-tested models
2 min read
You see billions in stablecoin volume and think it's retail trading. It's not. Over 90% is market makers, arbitrage bots, and institutional operations.
Hypotheses

You see billions in stablecoin volume and think it's retail trading. It's not. Over 90% is market makers, arbitrage bots, and institutional operations.

Hypothesis HY10018 You see billions in stablecoin volume and think it's retail trading. It's not. Over 90% is market makers, arbitrage bots, and institutional operations. Trading hypothesis What traders get wrong False assumption: "High stablecoin volume indicates retail adoption." Truth: 90%+ of stablecoin volume
1 min read
Layer 2 solutions promise scaling. But bridges are the most hacked infrastructure in crypto. Ronin: $600M. Wormhole: $320M. Nomad: $190M.
Hypotheses

Layer 2 solutions promise scaling. But bridges are the most hacked infrastructure in crypto. Ronin: $600M. Wormhole: $320M. Nomad: $190M.

Hypothesis HY10015 Layer 2 solutions promise scaling. But bridges are the most hacked infrastructure in crypto. Ronin: $600M. Wormhole: $320M. Nomad: $190M. Trading hypothesis What traders get wrong False assumption: "L2s are just faster Ethereum. Same security, more throughput." Truth: Bridges create new attack surfaces: massive TVL honeypots,
1 min read
Is crypto correlated to stocks? Yes and no. During normal times, correlation wanders. But during crashes, everything correlates to 1. The diversification benefit disappears exactly when you need it.
Hypotheses

Is crypto correlated to stocks? Yes and no. During normal times, correlation wanders. But during crashes, everything correlates to 1. The diversification benefit disappears exactly when you need it.

Hypothesis HY10013 Is crypto correlated to stocks? Yes and no. During normal times, correlation wanders. But during crashes, everything correlates to 1. The diversification benefit disappears exactly when you need it. Trading hypothesis What traders get wrong False assumption: "Crypto is uncorrelated. It's digital gold / inflation hedge
2 min read
You can see the future in crypto: token unlock schedules. When VC tokens unlock, they sell. When team tokens vest, they sell. These events are public, predictable, and ignored by most traders.
Hypotheses

You can see the future in crypto: token unlock schedules. When VC tokens unlock, they sell. When team tokens vest, they sell. These events are public, predictable, and ignored by most traders.

Hypothesis HY10012 You can see the future in crypto: token unlock schedules. When VC tokens unlock, they sell. When team tokens vest, they sell. These events are public, predictable, and ignored by most traders. Trading hypothesis What traders get wrong False assumption: "Price is unpredictable. Fundamentals drive long-term value.
2 min read
"Audited by [Big Name Firm]" is supposed to mean safety. But audited protocols get hacked constantly. Audits check code at a point in time. Upgrades, composability, and economic exploits bypass technical audits.
Hypotheses

"Audited by [Big Name Firm]" is supposed to mean safety. But audited protocols get hacked constantly. Audits check code at a point in time. Upgrades, composability, and economic exploits bypass technical audits.

Hypothesis HY10011 "Audited by [Big Name Firm]" is supposed to mean safety. But audited protocols get hacked constantly. Audits check code at a point in time. Upgrades, composability, and economic exploits bypass technical audits. Trading hypothesis What traders get wrong False assumption: "This protocol was audited. My
2 min read
Projects try to "comply with regulations." But crypto regulation is random, contradictory, and constantly changing. What's legal today is illegal tomorrow.
Hypotheses

Projects try to "comply with regulations." But crypto regulation is random, contradictory, and constantly changing. What's legal today is illegal tomorrow.

Hypothesis HY10010 Projects try to "comply with regulations." But crypto regulation is random, contradictory, and constantly changing. What's legal today is illegal tomorrow. Trading hypothesis What traders get wrong False assumption: "Regulated projects are safe. Compliance reduces risk." Truth: Regulatory risk is unpredictable. Rules
2 min read
When influencers shill tokens, they're not sharing alpha - they're being paid to dump on you. Project teams pay for promotion, give influencers tokens at discount, then followers buy high.
Hypotheses

When influencers shill tokens, they're not sharing alpha - they're being paid to dump on you. Project teams pay for promotion, give influencers tokens at discount, then followers buy high.

Hypothesis HY10009 When influencers shill tokens, they're not sharing alpha - they're being paid to dump on you. Project teams pay for promotion, give influencers tokens at discount, then followers buy high. Trading hypothesis What traders get wrong False assumption: "Influencers share good opportunities. They
2 min read
"Not your keys, not your coins" - but key management is a nightmare. Hardware wallets fail. Seed phrases get lost. Every self-custody solution trades exchange risk for operational risk.
Hypotheses

"Not your keys, not your coins" - but key management is a nightmare. Hardware wallets fail. Seed phrases get lost. Every self-custody solution trades exchange risk for operational risk.

Hypothesis HY10007 "Not your keys, not your coins" - but key management is a nightmare. Hardware wallets fail. Seed phrases get lost. Every self-custody solution trades exchange risk for operational risk. Trading hypothesis What traders get wrong False assumption: "Self-custody is always safer. Move everything off exchanges.
2 min read
Bitcoin is supposed to be decentralized. But 3 mining pools control over 50% of hash rate. They could theoretically censor transactions or collude against users.
Hypotheses

Bitcoin is supposed to be decentralized. But 3 mining pools control over 50% of hash rate. They could theoretically censor transactions or collude against users.

Hypothesis HY10006 Bitcoin is supposed to be decentralized. But 3 mining pools control over 50% of hash rate. They could theoretically censor transactions or collude against users. Trading hypothesis What traders get wrong False assumption: "Bitcoin is decentralized. No single entity controls the network." Truth: Mining is highly
1 min read
That order book you're reading? It's fake. Spoofed orders, layered bids, and phantom liquidity make the displayed book meaningless. Large orders appear and vanish in milliseconds.
Hypotheses

That order book you're reading? It's fake. Spoofed orders, layered bids, and phantom liquidity make the displayed book meaningless. Large orders appear and vanish in milliseconds.

Hypothesis HY10004 That order book you're reading? It's fake. Spoofed orders, layered bids, and phantom liquidity make the displayed book meaningless. Large orders appear and vanish in milliseconds. Trading hypothesis What traders get wrong False assumption: "Order book depth shows real liquidity. I can execute
2 min read
Tether claims to be "fully backed." But backed by what? Their reserves include commercial paper, secured loans, corporate bonds, and "other investments" - not cash in a bank.
Hypotheses

Tether claims to be "fully backed." But backed by what? Their reserves include commercial paper, secured loans, corporate bonds, and "other investments" - not cash in a bank.

Hypothesis HY10003 Tether claims to be "fully backed." But backed by what? Their reserves include commercial paper, secured loans, corporate bonds, and "other investments" - not cash in a bank. Trading hypothesis What traders get wrong False assumption: "USDT is fully backed by USD. Tether
2 min read
BTC price moves don't come from organic USD demand - they come from Tether printing. When Tether mints billions in new USDT, BTC pumps. When minting stops or redemptions increase, BTC dumps. The correlation is too consistent to be coincidence.
Hypotheses

BTC price moves don't come from organic USD demand - they come from Tether printing. When Tether mints billions in new USDT, BTC pumps. When minting stops or redemptions increase, BTC dumps. The correlation is too consistent to be coincidence.

Hypothesis HY10002 BTC price moves don't come from organic USD demand - they come from Tether printing. When Tether mints billions in new USDT, BTC pumps. When minting stops or redemptions increase, BTC dumps. The correlation is too consistent to be coincidence. Trading hypothesis What traders get wrong
2 min read