Regime Transition Probability (7d) (M10121)
| Metric ID | M10121 |
|---|---|
| Category | AI |
| Access | public |
| Classification | proprietary |
| Computation | Classical + Quantum (hardware) + Quantum (simulated) |
| Computed by | Black Belt Labs |
| Freshness | fresh |
| Last refreshed |
Calculation methods
| Method | Last refreshed |
|---|---|
| Classical | |
| Quantum (simulated) | |
| Quantum (hardware) |
This is a proprietary Madjik metric. Its methodology is a trade secret; the values are available through the API.
Quantum configuration
Every quantum calculation of this metric, with the machine and circuit setup it runs on. Hardware values come from real IBM quantum computers; simulator values from a classical simulation of the same kind of circuit.
| Method | Quantum computing on hardware (quant-hw) |
|---|---|
| Provider | IBM Quantum Platform (Open plan) |
| Machine | ibm_marrakesh (156 qubits) |
| Machine type | superconducting QPU (IBM Heron) |
| Qubits used | 4 |
| Circuits per run | 1 |
| Shots per run | 8,192 |
| Circuit depth | 63 |
| Two-qubit gates | 14 |
| Gate basis | cz, rz, sx, x (IBM Heron native) |
| Algorithm | direct amplitude readout on hardware (shallow profile) |
| Profile | shallow |
| Error mitigation | dynamical decoupling + measurement twirling; no post-hoc correction |
| Hardware runs | 2 |
| Last run | 2026-10-05T06:30:50 |
| IBM job id | db1k3i3id5ic73er8ccg |
| How measured | IBM job record (transpiled circuit stats) |
| Method | Quantum computing simulated (quant-sim) |
|---|---|
| Provider | Qiskit Aer simulator (IBM open-source software) on Google Cloud |
| Machine | aer_simulator |
| Machine type | classical simulator (CPU, noise-free) |
| Qubits used | 6 |
| Circuits per run | 4 |
| Shots per run | 8,192 |
| Circuit depth | 1521 |
| Two-qubit gates | 858 |
| Gate basis | u, cx (Aer, flattened) |
| Algorithm | quantum amplitude estimation (MLAE) of the 7-day regime-change frequency |
| Profile | full |
| Error mitigation | none (noise-free simulation) |
| How measured | recorded circuits, compiled to u/cx |
Personal metrics: figures are the maximum across submitted portfolios (circuit size follows portfolio size). Machine qubits is the size of the whole chip; qubits used is what this calculation needs.
Method comparison (experimental)
The same metric computed several ways on the same frozen inputs, one change at a time, so a gap between two rows has a known cause. Each plus/minus is the standard error of that value. How to read this, and how it scales.
Daily simulator-only comparison
Snapshot 20261016T0002_224e50bf · 2026-10-16 00:02 UTC
| Step | Method | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Classical, exact | classical | 61 |
| Production value (-0.1 h from the snapshot) | classical | 20 |
| Quantum simulator, ideal | quantum simulated | 61 |
| Quantum simulator, ideal (hardware-sized circuit) | quantum simulated | 61 |
| Quantum simulator, sampled | quantum simulated | 61.2 ± 0.3801 |
| Noisy device model | quantum simulated | 60 ± 0.4221 |
Scored against what actually happened
Probability forecast. Outcome: 1 if the AI regime label (M50016) differs 7 days later. The label comes from the same AI, so this check is partly circular. Lower Brier score is better.
| Method | Result |
|---|---|
| classical | Brier 0.0617 over 135 forecasts; 5 events; mean forecast 20.7% vs observed 3.7% |
| quantum hardware | Brier 0.1082 over 1 forecasts; 0 events; mean forecast 32.9% vs observed 0.0% |
| quantum simulated | Brier 0.1374 over 38 forecasts; 4 events; mean forecast 31.3% vs observed 10.5% |
Quantum values are not expected to beat the classical value at these problem sizes. The purpose of this section is to show, with uncertainty, how and why the methods differ. Small samples: treat scores as indicative.
Hypotheses monitored by this metric
Access this metric
Query it via the Madjik API:
curl -H "X-API-Key: $MADJIK_API_KEY" \
https://api.madjik.io/v1/metrics/M10121