Hypotheses

Madjik's data feeds are based on fundamental hypotheses about market dynamics. On this page we explain all our hypotheses. Many of the hypotheses are un-orthodox, unexpected, or may even feel strange, but they are all based on years of operating in crypto, stablecoin/EMT, fiat, stock/share, derivatives, etc markets. On the Strategy page, we also share some (but not all 😉) of our own trading strategies for your inspiration.
When influencers shill tokens, they're not sharing alpha - they're being paid to dump on you. Project teams pay for promotion, give influencers tokens at discount, then followers buy high.
Hypotheses

When influencers shill tokens, they're not sharing alpha - they're being paid to dump on you. Project teams pay for promotion, give influencers tokens at discount, then followers buy high.

Hypothesis HY10009 When influencers shill tokens, they're not sharing alpha - they're being paid to dump on you. Project teams pay for promotion, give influencers tokens at discount, then followers buy high. Trading hypothesis What traders get wrong False assumption: "Influencers share good opportunities. They
2 min read
"Not your keys, not your coins" - but key management is a nightmare. Hardware wallets fail. Seed phrases get lost. Every self-custody solution trades exchange risk for operational risk.
Hypotheses

"Not your keys, not your coins" - but key management is a nightmare. Hardware wallets fail. Seed phrases get lost. Every self-custody solution trades exchange risk for operational risk.

Hypothesis HY10007 "Not your keys, not your coins" - but key management is a nightmare. Hardware wallets fail. Seed phrases get lost. Every self-custody solution trades exchange risk for operational risk. Trading hypothesis What traders get wrong False assumption: "Self-custody is always safer. Move everything off exchanges.
2 min read
Bitcoin is supposed to be decentralized. But 3 mining pools control over 50% of hash rate. They could theoretically censor transactions or collude against users.
Hypotheses

Bitcoin is supposed to be decentralized. But 3 mining pools control over 50% of hash rate. They could theoretically censor transactions or collude against users.

Hypothesis HY10006 Bitcoin is supposed to be decentralized. But 3 mining pools control over 50% of hash rate. They could theoretically censor transactions or collude against users. Trading hypothesis What traders get wrong False assumption: "Bitcoin is decentralized. No single entity controls the network." Truth: Mining is highly
1 min read
That order book you're reading? It's fake. Spoofed orders, layered bids, and phantom liquidity make the displayed book meaningless. Large orders appear and vanish in milliseconds.
Hypotheses

That order book you're reading? It's fake. Spoofed orders, layered bids, and phantom liquidity make the displayed book meaningless. Large orders appear and vanish in milliseconds.

Hypothesis HY10004 That order book you're reading? It's fake. Spoofed orders, layered bids, and phantom liquidity make the displayed book meaningless. Large orders appear and vanish in milliseconds. Trading hypothesis What traders get wrong False assumption: "Order book depth shows real liquidity. I can execute
2 min read
Tether claims to be "fully backed." But backed by what? Their reserves include commercial paper, secured loans, corporate bonds, and "other investments" - not cash in a bank.
Hypotheses

Tether claims to be "fully backed." But backed by what? Their reserves include commercial paper, secured loans, corporate bonds, and "other investments" - not cash in a bank.

Hypothesis HY10003 Tether claims to be "fully backed." But backed by what? Their reserves include commercial paper, secured loans, corporate bonds, and "other investments" - not cash in a bank. Trading hypothesis What traders get wrong False assumption: "USDT is fully backed by USD. Tether
2 min read
BTC price moves don't come from organic USD demand - they come from Tether printing. When Tether mints billions in new USDT, BTC pumps. When minting stops or redemptions increase, BTC dumps. The correlation is too consistent to be coincidence.
Hypotheses

BTC price moves don't come from organic USD demand - they come from Tether printing. When Tether mints billions in new USDT, BTC pumps. When minting stops or redemptions increase, BTC dumps. The correlation is too consistent to be coincidence.

Hypothesis HY10002 BTC price moves don't come from organic USD demand - they come from Tether printing. When Tether mints billions in new USDT, BTC pumps. When minting stops or redemptions increase, BTC dumps. The correlation is too consistent to be coincidence. Trading hypothesis What traders get wrong
2 min read