BTC spot vs perpetual futures can diverge significantly. ETF premiums/discounts exist. Cross-exchange spreads are wide. These arbitrage opportunities shouldn't exist in efficient markets.
Hypothesis HY10030
BTC spot vs perpetual futures can diverge significantly. ETF premiums/discounts exist. Cross-exchange spreads are wide. These arbitrage opportunities shouldn't exist in efficient markets.
Trading hypothesis
What traders get wrong
False assumption:
"Markets are efficient. Arbitrage is eliminated instantly."
Truth:
Massive arbitrage discrepancies exist between spot, futures, ETFs, and across exchanges.
Problem for trader:
Perpetual funding can be 100%+ annualized. ETF premiums swing wildly. Cross-exchange spreads are tradeable.
Key takeaways
What you should consider as a trader
- Funding rates are extreme - Perpetual funding can be 100%+ annualized.
- ETF premiums/discounts - GBTC traded at 50% discount, now premiums.
- Cross-exchange spreads - Same asset, different prices on different exchanges.
- Settlement basis - Futures vs spot basis is tradeable.
- Inefficiency is the norm - Arbitrage exists because markets aren't efficient.
Data you need
Capture arbitrage
Data points:
- Spot vs perpetual premium
- Funding rate analysis
- ETF premium/discount
- Cross-exchange spreads
Comparison of data sources
Where to get crucial data feeds
| Source | Availability | Notes |
| Coinglass | ⚠️ Partial | Funding data, limited historical analysis. |
| Yahoo Finance | ⚠️ Partial | ETF prices, no crypto-native analysis. |
| **Madjik** | ✅ Yes | 🚀 Get API Access Now |
Available metrics for this hypothesis:
| Metric | Description | Change dimensions | Time dimensions | How to use | API spec |
| `ME10011` | Derivatives | • Absolute Value (value) • Relative Change (relchg) • Score 0-100 (score) | • Current (now) • Past 1 Hour (past1h) • 8h • Past 24 Hours (past24h) | Example | API |
| `ME10006` | Exchange health | • Absolute Value (value) • Relative Change (relchg) • Score 0-100 (score) | • Current (now) • Past 24 Hours (past24h) • Past 7 Days (past7d) | Example | API |
Clean data for AI, A2A, MCP, etc.
Science behind hypothesis
Research supports this hypothesis
Studies show persistent arbitrage opportunities that should be eliminated in efficient markets.
Bottom line
Arbitrage that persists is arbitrage you can capture. Tracking cross-market discrepancies helps you find opportunities that shouldn't exist but do. Madjik monitors spot-futures basis, ETF premiums, and cross-exchange spreads in real-time.
Practical use
How to use this data in trading:
Combine these metrics for comprehensive analysis:
- ME10006 (Exchange Health): Monitor exchange solvency and withdrawal status to manage counterparty risk before problems emerge.
- ME10011 (Derivatives): Trade funding rate carry, basis arbitrage, and ETF premiums across perpetuals, futures, and options.
Detailed examples with Python code, AI agent integration (MCP/A2A), and risk analysis:
| `ME10006` | Exchange Health Trading Guide | Example → |
| `ME10011` | Derivatives Trading Guide | Example → |
API Documentation: docs.madjik.io
For informational purposes only. Not financial, investment, tax, legal or other advice.